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Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

 BANCHIERI USURAI La Nuova Grande Depressione. Disoccupazione giovanile al 51.1% in Grecia. Presto in Italia.

                L’Elstat, Istituto di Statistica greco, ha rilasciato oggi il dato sulla disoccupazione. Il tasso di disoccupazione in Grecia raggiunge un nuovo record salendo a febbraio al 21.7% dal 15,2% di febbraio 2011 e del 21.3% di gennaio 2012. Particolarmente colpiti i giovani. Nella fascia tra i 15 e i 24 anni il tasso di disoccupazione e’ al 53.8% (40.3% nel febbraio 2011) e in quella dei 25-34 anni e’ al 29.1% (era al 20.4% un anno fa).

                Complice una crisi politica che rende impossibile la formazione di un Governo stabile e coeso, la situazione sembrerebbe essere sfuggita completamente di mano ai politici. In ogni caso questa situazione sta rapidamente diventando eslosiva.

                Bloomberg riassume in poche parole i fatti: il 57 percento di 1,253 investitori intervistati si dichiara convinto chela Grecia dovrà abbandonare l’Euro entro la fine dell’anno.

                Se osserviamo con attenzione la tabellina riportata dal Telegraph, notiamo che l’Italia si trova nella posizione che la Grecia occupava sei mesi or sono.

                Che presto tocchi all’Italia?

     The Telegraph. 2012-05-10. One in two young Greeks are unemployed as jobs crisis spirals.

    Greece’s youth unemployment rate hit 51.1pc in December, official statistics from ELSTAT showed on Thursday.

    In contrast, Germany’s youth unemployment rate is just 7.8pc.

    The worrying youth jobless figure in Greece has overtaken crisis-hit Spain, which has its own youth jobless rate of 49.9pc, according to the latest available figures.

    Overall, the jobless rate in Greece hit 21pc, up from 20.9pc in November and twice the eurozone rate.

    The youth unemployment rate is twice as high as three years ago, according to the figures, which are not adjusted for seasonal factors.

    A wave of corporate closures and bankruptcies have been brought on through budget cuts imposed by the European Union and International Monetary Fund as a condition for saving the debt-laden country from a chaotic default.

    Some 600,000 jobs have been lost since 2008, when Greece’s economy plunged into its deepest and longest post-war recession.

    Nikos Magginas, an economist at National Bank of Greece, said: “Despite some emergency government measures to boost employment in early 2012, it is hard to see how the upward unemployment trend can be stabilized in the first half of the year.”

    Ten worst youth unemployment rates across the EU

Country

Youth unemployment rate (January 2012*)

 

Greece

51.1pc (December)

 

Spain

49.9pc

 

Slovakia

36pc

 

Portugal

35.1pc

 

Lithuania

34.4pc (December)

 

Italy

31.1pc

 

Latvia

29.9pc (Q3 2011)

 

Ireland

29.6pc

 

Bulgaria

28.9pc

 

Poland

27.5pc

 

UK 22.2pc

(Q3 2011)

 

*All figures for January 2012 unless otherwise stated

    A record 1.03m people were without work in December, 41pc more than in the same month last year. The number in work dropped to a record low of 3.9m, down 7.9pc year-on-year.

    Last month Greece slashed its minimum monthly wage by about a fifth to about 580 euros (£486), gross, to encourage hirings.

    German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, however, said on Wednesday this was still higher than other debt-laden countries such as Spain.

    The average unemployment rate for 2011 jumped to 17.3pc from 12.5pc in the previous year, according to the figures.

    The average jobless rate in the 17 countries sharing the euro rose slightly in December to a seasonally adjusted 10.6pc, from 10.5pc in November.

    Greece and Spain are the two worst countries in the eurozone in terms of youth unemployment, each with half of people under 25 out of work.

    Other eurozone areas suffering high youth unemployment include Portugal, Italy and Poland. The UK’s youth jobless rate is 22.2pc.

 

     Ekathimerini. 2012-05-10. Bloomberg poll: 57% of investors see a euro exit this year.

    The 17-nation euro area is on the verge of losing one of its members, with more than 50 percent of investors predicting an exit this year as Greece’s election impasse threatens to push the debt crisis to new depths, according to the Bloomberg Global Poll.

    As Greece faces political paralysis and voters balk at austerity, 57 percent of the 1,253 investors, analysts and traders who are Bloomberg subscribers said at least one country will abandon the euro by year-end and 80 percent expected more pain for Europe’s bond markets. With a majority identifying a deterioration in Europe as a large threat to the world economy, respondents to the May 8 survey were increasingly worried Spain will default and less willing to buy French debt as Francois Hollande takes power.

    Europe’s financial turmoil is reigniting on the second anniversary of policy makers’ first attempt to prevent Greece’s fiscal woes from turning toxic. That raises fresh doubt over the crisis-fighting strategy just as Greece’s inconclusive election spurs concern that the country may not meet the terms of its international rescues and will seek a solution outside the euro.

     “Certainly from a financial perspective the crisis can only intensify,” said Michael Derks, a poll respondent and chief strategist at FXPro Financial Services Ltd in London. “We’re likely to get more debt restructurings and it would be remarkable if Greece didn’t leave the euro within a year.”

    European stocks slid this week and Spanish default risk climbed to a record as Greece struggled to form a government after voters swung behind anti-bailout parties. France elected its first Socialist premier since 1981 in the latest ballot-box rejection of the budget cuts governments had believed were the best cure for their debt troubles.

     “Another flare-up of the crisis is likely,” said Alessandro Mercuri, an interest-rate strategist at Lloyds Banking Group Plc in London who responded to the poll. “The key variable for Europe is domestic politics.”

    About 386 billion euros ($501 billion) in aid commitments for Greece, Ireland and Portugal, the establishing of a larger rescue fund as well as 214 billion euros in bond purchases and more than 1 trillion euros in cheap bank loans from the European Central Bank have failed to placate investors.

    The number of poll participants who predicted a smaller euro area within a year ballooned to 57 percent from 11 percent in January 2011. The 80 percent saying evidence Europe is stabilizing is temporary and that the market will be roiled again also marks a jump from about two-thirds who held that position at the start of this year.

    The 55 percent who said backsliding by Europe posed a high risk to the world economy was more than double the number which said the same of a hard landing by China’s economy or gridlock among U.S. politicians.

    Even policy makers have begun to quiz whether Greece can stay in the euro, reviving the once taboo debate of if the single currency is for life and establishing a likely new round of elections as a referendum on membership.

     “If Greece decides not to stay in the euro zone, we cannot force Greece,” German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said yesterday. “They will decide whether to stay in the euro zone or not.”

    With recession beckoning, 84 percent said the euro-area economy is worsening. The same amount said they expect social unrest including riots, a worry that has progressively increased from 56 percent in September.

    Mirroring the irritation of voters, only a third of those questioned backed budget cuts as the most effective medicine for weak economies; 53 percent advocated fiscal stimulus.

    Greece, where stocks this week fell to their lowest level in about two decades, remains the focal point of the crisis.    Ninety-four percent of poll respondents said it will default on its debt, the most since the survey began. The country has already restructured what it owes private bondholders.

    Economists at Citigroup Inc. were among those to say this week that the fragmented election result that left no party with a mandate had increased the chance of Greece quitting the single currency.

    In a sign of contagion, 47 percent said Spain is likely to default, the most since the survey started measuring this in June 2010 and almost double the tally of four months ago, as investors question whether Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy can tackle both climbing debt and the region’s highest jobless rate. Sixty-three percent bet Portugal will fail to pay its bills, although only about a quarter anticipated the same fate for Italy and Ireland. Just one percent said Germany will go bankrupt.

    While 90 percent expected France to pay its way, Hollande’s victory was greeted with disappointment among those polled as 71 percent said it makes them less willing to buy French bonds. Sixty percent regarded Hollande unfavorably and 71 percent viewed his policies with pessimism, about the same as predecessor Nicolas Sarkozy.

    Reflecting the confusion of policy makers, investors split over the biggest threat to the euro zone. Thirty-five percent cited the lack of political cooperation among European Union leaders, edging out the 30 percent who pointed to anemic economic growth and 28 percent who blamed excessive debt.

    There is some room for comfort. Eighty-three percent said the euro zone won’t collapse this year and 66 percent bet against a financial meltdown in the region’s banking sector. Eighty percent said Europe’s travails won’t prompt a global economic slump in 2012.

    Two-thirds were favorable of ECB President Mario Draghi and sixty percent said they had a positive opinion of International Monetary Fund managing Director Christine Lagarde. Fifty-six percent were optimistic about the policies of German Chancellor Angela Merkel, the most since January 2011, while the actions of U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron were praised by 49 percent.

    The survey was conducted by West Des Moines, Iowa-based Selzer & Co. and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.

     [Bloomberg]

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